Scenario analysis as a tool to explore pathways towards national organic farming targets
The OrganicTargets4EU project piloted an innovative methodology to develop possible scenarios for reaching the organic targets within the EU Green Deal’s Farm to Fork strategy.
This normative scenario analysis methodology is a useful and innovative tool within strategic planning to explore and envision possible future states based on normative assumptions and desired outcomes. It is particularly suited to complex problems as the focus on normative principles and desired values helps to guide decision-making. Moreover, it is valuable for identifying the impact of diverse future scenarios on supply chains, markets, knowledge and innovation, farm advisory, support structures, and policy.
Using 2040 as the time horizon, OrganicTargets4EU defined four scenarios leading to a 25% share of organic land in the EU by 2030. The methodology consists of the following steps:
- Step 1: Analysis of existing knowledge on megatrends, enabling factors and lock-ins, to form a list of driving forces.
- Step 2: Delphi surveying to restrict the list to high-impact uncertainties.
- Step 3: Definition of qualitative states for each of the selected drivers to form scenario storylines.
- Step 4: Multi-day workshops to develop the scenarios with researchers, farming organisations, and other stakeholders.
This innovative methodology could be useful to apply in the Irish context in line with the National Organic Strategy (2024-2027).
Find out more about this innovation by contacting Claire at claire@erinn.eu.
